Pike thinks it is essential to identify the potential cleavages between Pashtun tribal leaders and the Taliban. In what was known as the “Sunni Awakening” in Iraq, Sunni tribes in Anbar and other provinces revolted against al Qaeda with U.S. support, creating an effective counterinsurgency. Convincing Pashtun leaders to do the same against the Taliban could help turn the tide in Afghanistan, but the military first needs to know which ones can be convinced. What coalition forces need most, Pike says, is a comprehensive social network analysis of the tribes—just as was done in Iraq with great success.

AFP/AFP/Getty Images

Who Will Follow Kim?

The mission: Enter North Korean ruler Kim Jong Il’s inner circle and determine who is in line to be his successor.

Briefing: Unconfirmed reports say that the 66-year-old Kim probably suffered a stroke in August and has been recovering since. Leaked intelligence indicates that he is still in control, but it’s unclear who will take the reins of the nuclear-armed country if his health takes a turn for the worse. Ken Gause of CNA, a think tank that does work for the Pentagon, thinks there are three main possibilities for the passing of the baton: dynastic succession, the emergence of a military strongman, or collective leadership. Kim seems unlikely to select one of his own sons as successor. His two younger sons are seen as inexperienced, and the eldest one, Kim Jong Nam, may have fallen out of favor after he was caught trying to sneak into Japan to visit Disneyland. The emergence of a military strongman also seems unlikely, since Kim has been careful to eliminate any potential rivals within the regime.

There is some consensus among experts that a form of collective leadership centered on the country’s National Defense Commission (NDC) would emerge if Kim dies or is incapacitated. The commission controls North Korea’s military and is currently chaired by the Dear Leader. Gause says that candidates the NDC might select for the leadership spot may include Kim’s brother-in-law Chang Song-taek, thought to oversee the state’s internal security organs, and Yi Che-kang, a senior figure in the party apparatus. If a succession plan is already in place, Gause concedes, a well-orchestrated handoff might eventually lead to reform, though “no one is going to stick their neck out until they feel sufficiently secure from blowback from the rest of the collective leadership.” On the flip side, a scramble for power might lead to an even more isolationist North Korea until power is consolidated.