Now, Obama has got something going for him. The price of oil has tumbled. The Iranian economy is in terrible shape. It’s an unpopular regime, by almost any measure. And if he could get a really tough sanctions policy, he might actually be able to do something.

FP: In September 2003, you said that “a year from now, I’ll be very surprised if there is not some grand square in Baghdad that is named after President Bush” and that except for a “very small number of people close to a vicious regime, the people of Iraq have been liberated and they understand that they’ve been liberated.” Does the rosy picture at all represent the country we see today?

RP: I never expected that we would get into that occupation. I thought we’d be out of there. Iraqi sovereignty would have been restored. That didn’t happen.

Is it rosy today? Do I think most Iraqis have been liberated? Absolutely. I think the Kurds have been liberated, for sure. The Shiites, who were horribly suppressed, have been liberated. And I think many Sunnis, too. That was a place where you got arrested in the middle of the night, and nobody every heard from you again.

Obviously if it deteriorates into chaos or a new Saddam emerges and people are no better off than they were before, then there won’t be [a square named after President Bush]. But I think they’ve got a decent chance of establishing a representative government that isn’t going to look like our system, or some other democratic systems, but if it’s reasonably representative and humane, if the economy starts to develop—yes. I think [Iraqis] will look back and say, we paid a terrible price, but it’s worth it.

FP: Obama reportedly remains open to keeping Robert Gates on as secretary of defense. Would that be a good decision?

RP: My guess, when the rumors first started before the election, was that it was an interesting way to say to people who may have bought the line that [Obama] was a dangerous radical that in fact he was pretty moderate in outlook. But I wouldn’t [keep Gates on]. He’s got better choices, and I think you want someone with more imagination. You’re at the beginning of what is likely to be eight years and you probably want to accomplish something. Gates is a decent man. He’s very workmanlike, but there’s no inspiration and no imagination.

Richard Perle is resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a former U.S. assistant secretary of defense for international security policy.