"Piracy Is Making a Comeback"

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Protection racket: Ships don't need crews armed with AKs to prevent pirate attacks.

No, it never went away. The world has lived with piracy for millennia, and efforts to clean up the seas have never been truly successful. If anything, a rise in piracy has simply kept pace with the growth in international shipping. There are more targets, and thus more incidents -- on average, about 275 attacks around the world annually for the past several years. True, the string of hijackings off the coast of Somalia in recent months has taken the phenomenon to new heights of drama. It is hard to believe that a Ukrainian ship loaded with weapons and a Saudi oil tanker carrying $100 million worth of oil could fall victim to a couple of Somali skiffs, as both did last fall. But it isn't hard to do when Somali pirates have an army of wishful recruits ready to fill their ranks. Piracy is an industry with very few barriers to entry.

What has changed is the geography of piracy. Up until 1994, the roughly 300 annual reports of piracy and armed robbery against ships were distributed fairly evenly throughout the world. With the growth of China's exports to Europe and imports from the Middle East, international trade greatly increased -- 90 percent of it moving by sea. In the latter half of the 1990s, piracy increased in key shipping lanes in the South China Sea, the Strait of Malacca, and the Indian Ocean. During the past five years, pirate waters have shifted away from Southeast Asia to both coasts of Africa.

In all cases, the problem is rooted in poor governance onshore. There has been no effective government to control illicit groups or patrol waters in Somalia since the 1991 collapse of Mohamed Siad Barre's regime. In the years since, foreign fishing trawlers have increasingly encroached on Somali waters, decimating the local fishing industry and spawning the plague of piracy to "defend" Somali waters (one pirate group even calls itself the coast guard). Unlike in West Africa, where hijacking occurs close to shore, Somali pirates track down their prey hundreds of miles from the coast. The Saudi oil tanker hijacked on Nov. 15 was 420 nautical miles from shore. Somalia is the hot spot for now, but pirates will likely crop up wherever coastlines and failed states align.

"Pirates Are Terrorists"

Not yet. Piracy is armed robbery at sea, but it isn't terrorism. It is more akin to carjacking than to car-bombing. Yes, pirates target civilians, but not to instill fear; it's to make money. Somali pirates' "business model" of holding ships, cargo, and crew hostage until shipping companies pay million-dollar ransoms has proven to be lucrative, raking in more than $150 million last year, according to Kenya's foreign minister. One of the reasons companies pay these ransoms is because of the implicit guarantee that ships, cargo, and crew are left unharmed. So serious are the pirates about keeping their end of the deal that an illicit catering industry has sprung up in Somalia to care for and feed the hostages while awaiting ransom.

Piracy is better compared to organized crime. The enterprise employs thousands: commando-like pirates who hijack the ships, international negotiators who secure payments, and logistic supporters who supply food, fuel, and weapons. Like other illicit networks, pirates have a faster learning curve than governments. During the past five years, pirates have readily harnessed off-the-shelf technology such as satellite phones, night-vision goggles, and GPS. They successfully combine this technology with simple weapons such as knives, AK-47 assault rifles, and rocket-propelled grenade launchers. The shipping industry -- not to the mention the world's navies -- has yet to catch up. Right now, there are at least 14 ships being held hostage in Somali waters; 250 crew members from around the world are waiting for ransoms to be paid.

"Armed Merchant Ships Are the Answer"

Wrong. Arming crews or deploying security teams on merchant ships won't prevent hijacking, but it is guaranteed to escalate violence. So far, pirates have not harmed their hostages or sunk captured vessels. Fighting back will certainly change this. Armed crews will also create higher insurance rates for ships as the risk of damage to vessels and cargo increases. Already, companies' need to buy kidnapping insurance for their crews and cargo has raised costs by half a percent, and that number is sure to rise. Greater costs will also follow if the risk of pirates forces ships to avoid the Suez Canal and transit around South Africa -- a far longer, less fuel-efficient journey.

Protective measures such as barbed wire, improved early warning radar, nonlethal fire hoses, and long-range audio devices are the best -- and least expensive -- way to repel attackers. Pirate attacks have been easily frustrated when their targets have increased speed, removed boarding ladders, and taken evasive maneuvers. Compare these simple measures with the no less than 70 warships that would be necessary to protect commercial shipping in the Gulf of Aden. Safe escort from an international coalition might work to protect humanitarian ships bringing desperately needed food shipments into Somalia. But a few antipirate warships in the region from Europe, China, and India -- with none coordinating -- would have little effect on the problem for the vast majority of commercial ships.