Even for Barack Obama, winning over the Muslim world is going to take far more than just well-received interviews and eloquent speeches.
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Just hours after U.S. President Barack Obama's interview
Monday with Al Arabiya television, the English-language headlines on the Web
and in print were effusive. Obama was promising to resolve the Middle East conflict and be a good listener to Arab and
Muslim grievances. Muslim-American organizations and bloggers -- always looking
for signs of their importance in politics and society -- wasted no time proclaiming
that Obama, who seemed to ignore them on the campaign trail, was reaching out,
giving their concerns the attention and respect they feel they deserve.
But people in the Middle East, and particularly Iran, are
not swayed by skilled oration and flowery language. If it were poetry Iranians
were really looking for, they could always turn to Rumi or Omar Khayyam.
As far as Iranians are concerned, they will believe change
has come to Washington when the U.S.
government offers them not just a chance for dialogue, but as many carrots as
sticks. Hours after Obama's interview, the Iranian government was quick to
introduce a bit of skepticism into the world's reaction. Referring to the Al
Arabiya interview, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said, "We welcome change, but
on condition that change is fundamental and on the right track. When they say ‘We
want to make changes,' change can happen in two ways. First is a fundamental
and effective change. ... The second ... is a change of tactics."
Iranian newspapers across the political spectrum also
expressed skepticism. One newspaper, owned by a close advisor to Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, called Obama "an advocate of the Zionist entity," which
is the terminology Iran uses
to refer to Israel.
"His [cabinet] appointments are surprising to everyone who thought he would
bring change," said a news analysis in the newspaper Entekhab.
Other Iranian commentators voiced doubt over whether the
president's remarks and those of Susan Rice, the U.S.
ambassador to the United Nations, about engaging Iran will ever lead to
negotiations. "Are we able to tell if the lobby [the American Israel Public Affairs
Committee] will tie Obama's hands or if we can heat up the ovens of
expectations that Iran and
the U.S.
will have a rapprochement?" asked one pundit.
There is little question that many factions within the
regime want to reconcile with Washington.
And although this new Obama script might be kinder, gentler, even self-deprecating, Iranians have seen this American movie before.
Arabs, too, have their doubts. After all, they've watched
Obama remain virtually silent in recent weeks as Israel
carried out a relentless and asymmetrical war on Palestinians in Gaza. His repetitive statement
that there could only be one president at a time was met with resentment. History
has never been on their side: They are familiar with a half century of U.S.
policy in the Middle East that has been less than evenhanded and has never
dramatically changed from one president to the next.
So although some teary-eyed Americans might be gushing over Obama's
hopeful pronouncements with relief that his attitude and tone reflect a clear
shift from the Bush administration, Middle Easterners are no doubt waiting for action
to follow words.
Not in public, but in private, they are asking the tough
questions: Will U.S. policy fundamentally change, given Washington's
relationship with Israel?
What about the other parts of Obama's Al Arabiya interview in which he called Israel "a strong ally of the United States"?
Is he going to reserve seats at the peace table for Hamas
and Hezbollah, a necessary step for real progress? And, what does his reference
to leaders who cling to power through "deceit and the silencing of dissent" really
mean? If, as he says, they are "on the wrong side of history," is the United
States going to cut off aid and demand free elections and an end to repression
and human rights violations carried out by nearly every Arab regime? Or will he
revert to business as usual, like all his predecessors have done?
If the Arab street
protests across the region over Gaza
-- which in number and rage were unprecedented -- prove anything, it is that
Arab regimes are more vulnerable than ever to real dissent and upheaval. There
are now opposition movements mobilizing people, such as laborers, members of
the underclass, and a new generation of young activists, who in the past never
cared about politics. Can the United
States afford to further destabilize these
regimes?
Arabs and Iranians are relieved to know that Obama is not an
ideologue like his predecessor. But as much as he is a visionary, he is also a
pragmatist. They worry that the weight of the foreign-policy establishment in Washington and the
realities of geopolitics will crush his ambitions -- and theirs in the process.