Netanyahu and
Lieberman are already thumbing their noses at Obama. Will he have the courage
to stand up for U.S. interests?
YEHUDA RAIZNER/AFP/Getty Images
A call to arms? The newly inaugurated Israeli foreign minister rejects a two-state solution and tells the peaceful that they should prepare to fight on.
There's a reason no one has ever accused Israeli leaders of
being shy. When U.S. President Barack Obama appointed Sen. George Mitchell
as his envoy on Middle East peace, he made a point of saying that a two-state
solution was the best way to safeguard U.S. interests and secure Israel's
future. And yesterday in Jerusalem, as the new Israeli government took office, the
new prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, began making his counterpoints.
It seems the new Israeli administration -- as evidenced both by
its appointments and its policies -- is ready to go head-to-head with the Obama
team, and it isn't trying to be subtle.
It's no big news that the new foreign minister, former
Moldovan Avigdor Lieberman, has controversial politics (except perhaps by the
standards of the Milosovic regime in the 1990s), though they've caused little
more than quiet grumblings in foreign capitals. But if there was any lingering
hope that his race-centric views and militant posturing were simply campaign
tactics, those hopes were dampened by his speech at the handover ceremony at
the Foreign Ministry. Lieberman was dismissive of recent peace talks, saying, "The
Israeli government never ratified [the commitment to a two-state solution at] Annapolis;
nor did [the] Knesset." All concessions Israel made were in vain, he said.
"Those who want peace should prepare for war and be strong."
Netanyahu sent a similar message by appointing his longtime
aid Uzi Arad to be national security advisor. Since 2007,Arad, reportedly because the Bush administration considered him a
counterintelligence risk, has been denied a visa to come to the United States.
You know Arad must have pushed some sensitive buttons to have ticked off an
otherwise forgiving Bush administration.
The messages that Netanyahu and Lieberman have sent in the
past 48 hours highlight a fast-evolving concern for the Obama administration:
The new Israeli government has adopted a domestic and foreign policy almost
entirely opposed to that of the United States. And those policy differences
center on three issues: Israeli domestic
policy toward its Arab minority (which constitutes about 20 percent of Israel's
population), Israel's intent to occupy the Palestinian West Bank and the Syrian
Golan Heights indefinitely, and Israel's desire for the United States to
militarily degrade Iran's industrial capability, in particular its nuclear
program.
The status of the Arab minority is perhaps the most
complicated for the Obama administration to address, as it's a domestic issue
for Israel. But it also matters for the United States. How Israel treats the
Palestinians who have Israeli citizenship has direct consequences for Israel's
security, for the peace process, and for the region. Lieberman has taken the
idea of two states for two peoples to an extreme. He seeks an Israel that
effectively is not only predominantly Jewish, but one that is almost entirely
Jewish. Lieberman imagines a transfer of some Israeli cities with Arab
populations bordering the 1967 green line out of the Israeli polity, but to
where? His prime minister has ruled out the creation of a Palestinian state in
the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
More broadly, the mix of official government opposition to
Palestinian independence, open discussion of ethnic separation, and the almost
apocalyptic discourse being promoted by Israeli academics such as Benny Morris are
creating a Balkan-like situation within Israel proper that could quickly
eclipse the situation in the occupied territories as a threat to international
peace and stability if allowed to continue.
Then of course, there is the not-so-small matter of the two-state
solution. After three years of sanctions and the isolation of Hamas for its
refusal to publicly endorse a two-state solution and accept Israel's right to
exist, Israel now has a government with the same policy, but in reverse. Not
once in his speech did Netanyahu mention the words "two-state solution." Palestinians
and Israeli critics -- namely opposition leader Tzipi Livni -- noted the
absence and all it suggested. True, Netanyahu has said he would respect
previous Israeli agreements, but Lieberman's dismissal of the Annapolis process
speaks volumes.
And then there is Iran. Israeli leaders and
their advocates have already promoted a full-court blitz demanding that the
United States "stop" Iran, or Israel will be forced to do so on its own. In
part, this is bluster, as few analysts believe Israel is able to attack Iran on
its own, and no one believes that Iran wouldn't retaliate, which would force the
United States into the middle of the conflict. However, this emphasis on Iran
serves another useful purpose for Netanyahu and Lieberman: Not only does it
remove Palestinian independence and potential Israeli peace treaties with the
Arab world from U.S. focus, but it sets the agenda for the U.S.-Israeli talks that
are to take place this May.
So far, the Obama administration has kept its cards close to
the vest -- there's little sign of how it will engage Israel's new administration
on such fundamental differences in policy. But one thing is certain. The longer
the United States waits, the harder it will be for the Israeli government to back
down from its positions. And it is clear, looking at the challenges facing the
United States throughout the Middle East, that placing Israel's occupation of
the West Bank on the back burner is only going to add fuel to the many
brush fires the United States is already fighting in the region. Dealing with a
hostile and recalcitrant enemy in Afghanistan and Pakistan is hard enough, but
the Obama administration may find that dealing with a hostile and recalcitrant
ally brings its own set of challenges.
Amjad Atallah is
co-director of the Middle East Task Force at the New America Foundation.
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