World leaders still haven't addressed the structural problems that got us into the financial crisis.
PHILIPPE WOJAZER/AFP/Getty Images
First things first: The G-20 conference achieved progress on areas of wide agreement, but the toughest challenges have yet to be faced.
Many have pointed to Sept. 15,
2008, as the day the global economy fell off a cliff. That was the day
Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy, sending equity markets into a
tailspin and freezing up credit around the world.
But the global
economy wasn't in great health prior to Lehman's crisis -- and we have
yet to fix all of the structural problems that helped put us where we
are today. Prior to the crisis, U.S. households saved too little and
borrowed too much. Conversely, many of the United States' creditors
consumed too little and saved too much. Asia and the oil-exporting
countries were simultaneously running large trade surpluses (that
situation is unusual: a rise in oil prices usually reduces the surplus
of oil-importing East Asia). These combined large surpluses also
necessarily implied large deficits elsewhere in the global economy. On
the whole, money was flowing uphill, from emerging economies to
advanced economies, from the poor to the rich, and from countries
offering high financial returns to countries generally offering low
returns.
The U.S. trade deficit, to be sure, reflected the
United States' own excesses, as financial and political leaders alike
turned a blind eye to a housing bubble. Nor did U.S. regulators prevent
financial leverage from rising as investors sought to maintain returns
as yields fell.
But America wasn't solely to blame. A host of
emerging economies maintained policies -- such as China's de facto
dollar peg -- that pushed up their trade surpluses and thus their
capacity to finance the United States' deficit. Absent this strong
demand for "safe" U.S. debt from central bank reserve managers, U.S.
interest rates would have risen, and the housing bubble might never
have reached such dangerous proportions. Private investors, after all,
wanted to finance deficits in the fast-growing emerging world, not
deficits in the (relatively) slow-growing United States. The unnatural
uphill flow thus wasn't a market outcome; it stemmed entirely from an
unprecedented increase in the foreign exchange reserves of a host of
emerging economies.
Even as capital was flowing uphill globally,
it was flowing downhill inside Europe. That created a different kind of
imbalance: Private investors in wealthy countries with high savings in
Europe's northern core financed large deficits on Europe's periphery,
whether in the west (Ireland), southwest (Spain), or east (nearly
everyone). The external deficits of a host of European countries were
actually far larger, relative to the size of their economies, than the
United States' external deficit.
Many hoped the G-20 would
directly address the world's main macroeconomic imbalances. After all,
that seemed like a worthy objective for a gathering of all the world's
major economies. But in practice that wasn't the case. The main
achievement of the London summit -- and make no mistake, it was a real
achievement -- was to expand the resources available to the
International Monetary Fund (IMF). This will allow the IMF to lend more
to cash-strapped Eastern Europe and still have a bit of money left in
its coffers should additional problems develop. Other key issues were
set aside. As Columbia University economist Jeffrey Sachs observed,
"Exchange rates were hardly mentioned, despite the fact that exchange
rate adjustments are surely needed to smooth the elimination of large
and unsustainable global trade imbalances."
Why? Three reasons.
First, Eastern Europe's financial difficulties required an immediate
solution. A $250 billion IMF was too small to serve even as Europe's
monetary fund, let alone the world's piggy bank. Give the United States
credit: It indentified a problem, proposed a solution, and built
consensus around its call to provide the IMF with $500 billion in
additional money. That is leadership. More has been done to redefine
the IMF's global role in the last three months than was agreed in the
three years of discussion that followed the Asian crisis.
Second,
the collapse of worldwide demand reduced the urgency of finding a
solution to global imbalances, particularly as the shock from the
crisis was bringing them down. The U.S. trade deficit will be about
half its peak level in the first quarter, thanks largely to the fall in
oil prices. Japan's surplus also has disappeared, as demand for its
manufactured exports has fallen faster than its commodity bill. Only
China still runs a large surplus.
The world's leaders opted to
focus on the immediate challenge of arresting a synchronized fall in
global demand, even if that meant that deficit countries such as the
United States risked doing more than their share of the heavy lifting
while surplus countries didn't do enough. White House economic adviser
Lawrence Summers was quite explicit about this, telling the Financial
Times last month: "The old global imbalances agenda was more demand in
China, less demand in America. Nobody thinks that is the right agenda
now. ... There's no place that should be reducing its contribution to
global demand right now. It is really the universal demand agenda."
Third,
key countries still don't agree on the problem, much less the solution.
The United States thinks that the surplus countries aren't doing enough
to stimulate the global economy. The United States and Britain -- two
countries with current account deficits -- will be running fiscal
deficits of between 8 and 10 percent of their GDPs in 2009. On the
other hand, Germany and China -- two countries with current account
surpluses -- will run fiscal deficits this year of 3 to 4 percent of
their GDPs. Conversely, the surplus countries think the United States
is doing too much to stimulate its own economy. Germany hasn't exactly
hid its opposition to a fiscal stimulus. China is worried that U.S.
macroeconomic policies may dilute the value of its dollar reserves.
And
then there is the vexing question of exchange rates, above all China's
dollar peg. China vetoed any mention of its peg in the November
leaders' communiqué. Beijing thinks its peg had nothing to do with the
rise in China's trade surplus. Many other countries think that China's
link to the dollar left its currency undervalued when the dollar
was depreciating, and thus contributed to the development of China's
large surplus. However, the fact that the crisis led the dollar -- and
thus the renminbi -- to appreciate meant that a weak renminbi wasn't a
pressing issue. China's currency actually rose far more against a
trade-weighted basket of currencies after China repegged to the dollar
than it ever did when China's currency was slowly appreciating against
the (then depreciating) dollar.
The underlying issues remain. A
successful U.S. fiscal stimulus could push the U.S. external deficit
back up, particularly if other countries don't implement a comparable
stimulus. And the last few years suggest that dollar appreciation
shouldn't be counted on to drive renminbi appreciation.
Bottom
line: The urgent trumped the important, and the world's leaders, hungry
for success, opted to focus on the areas where they agree, not those
where they don't.
Brad Setser is fellow for geoeconomics at the Council on Foreign Relations.
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