What Obama's Middle East peace envoy needs to know about the people who are trying to delude him.
President Obama's special peace envoy, former Sen. George
Mitchell, is just wrapping up his latest visit to the Middle
East. It's his third trip since being appointed and this time in
addition to Israel, the West Bank, and Egypt, included Saudi Arabia and North
Africa (Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria), with an emphasis on a comprehensive
regional peace, building on the Arab
Peace Initiative of 2002. (Mitchell has yet to visit Damascus
or Beirut, something unlikely to take place
until after June's parliamentary elections in Lebanon.)
In meetings with Israeli and Palestinian leaders, Mitchell
continued to reiterate U.S. support
for a two-state solution, although the emphasis of the visit, perhaps
understandably, still seems to be the listening tour aspect, including the
first meetings since Israel's
new government took office.
Some reports on these latest meetings portray PLO chairman Mahmoud
Abbas as carrying a message of hope and peace in the face of a rejectionist
Israeli premier. Others depict Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as
being seized by the more urgent calling of the Iranian threat, and showing a
willingness to make progress on practical issues with the Palestinians, such as
the economy, while avoiding a possibly dangerous and premature effort to
address the political differences -- especially given the enfeebled nature of
the Palestinian counterpart.
Both views are wrong.
The sad truth is that neither leader has a meaningful strategy
for creating a new equilibrium for resolving this conflict. Despite all their
differences (and there are many), Netanyahu and Abbas are similar in two major
respects: Both stand atop deeply dysfunctional political systems that eschew
bold decision-making. And both are focused on short-term political survival, an
understandable instinct and one certainly not unique to the Levant,
but also woefully inadequate given the challenges faced by their respective
peoples.
So, due to both circumstance and a generous dose of
intentional design, Senator Mitchell's Palestinian and Israeli interlocutors
are busy preparing sugar-coated traps and distractions. The Mitchell team
should be well prepared to recognize the pitch of a snake- oil salesman when
they hear one.
On the Israel
interlocutor side, here are the main traps Mitchell should look out for:
1) The ‘Say the Magic
Words' Game. Thus far, Netanyahu is refusing to explicitly endorse the
two-state formula. This is being nicely set up to become a rather large red
herring, whereby diplomatic attention becomes focused on teasing out a
linguistic formula to claim that Israel's premier is indeed a "two-stater."
Last Friday's headline in the Israeli daily Ma'ariv
even suggests that Netanyahu is planning for a dramatic climb- down gesture
during his first visit with U.S. President Barack Obama (now postponed from
early May to possibly later in the month), during which he would declare acceptance
of thetwo states position. What a
colossal distraction and waste of time.
To paraphrase what always used to be said of former PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat
--what matters are his actions, not his words. Saying the magic words is of
minor import. Ending the occupation and actually delivering on a two-state
solution is what should matter to the Mitchell team. The latest ruse to
apparently come out of the Netanyahu-Mitchell meeting was an Israeli demand that
the Palestinians first recognize Israel as a Jewish state (something that
neither Egypt, nor Jordan, did in their respective peace treaties with Israel)
-- a meaningless diversionary tactic.
2)It's
not the economy, stupid.Netanyahu
advocates focusing first on what he calls "economic peace" -- developing the
Palestinian economy as a prerequisite for two states. Indeed, economic
improvement would be welcome, and no one should oppose moves such as ending the
closures, removing the 600-plus
obstacles to freedom of Palestinian movement in the West Bank (that
dovetail with the map of settlements and settler road use arrangements),
lifting the siege on Gaza, etc. However, by now the secret may be out that
developing the Palestinian economy in order to make the Palestinians a
peace-loving people, while maintaining the Israeli occupation and the
settlements, is precisely what's been tried for the last 15 years -- with
dismal results. The Palestinians won't be bought off; this is a political
conflict requiring political solutions. Economic improvements are important as
a support ballast, not as a central plank.
3) "You go first; no
you go first." If Netanyahu is
smart (as I consider him to be), then he is likely to spot a tantalizing
diversionary opportunity in the Arab Peace Initiative. That plan, initiated by
the Saudis and adopted by the Arab League in 2002, and reissued in 2007, calls
for recognition, security, and normal relations between all the Arab states and
Israel in exchange for a comprehensive agreement between Israel and its
immediate neighbors, based on land-for-peace, two-states, and U.N. resolutions.
It's a potential game-changer, and the Obama administration (unlike its
predecessor, which ignored the initiative) is apparently keen
on using the initiative as a framing principle for its peace efforts. Its
beauty is in its simplicity and in its comprehensive nature: everything for
everything.