So that's the report card. An A on the budget, B on
the stimulus, and F on the bailout. On the whole (given how I weigh grades)
that gives Obamanomics a C+. Not bad given the magnitude of the problems Obama
inherited. But by the same token, not nearly good enough.
Robert
Reich, a secretary of labor during the Clinton administration, is a professor
at the Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California,
Berkeley. A version of this post appeared on his personal blog, at robertreich.org.
Marc
Lynch
Grade:
A-
Obama has taken on an
incredibly ambitious agenda in the Middle East, against long odds. He managed
the recasting of Iraq policy brilliantly, emerging with solid bipartisan
consensus around his plan to draw down forces and withdraw by the end of 2011. His
personal outreach to the Muslim world has been stellar, tapping into his
potential to be a transformative figure in America's relations with the Islamic
world -- and he has backed that up with concrete policy changes on hot issues
such as Guantanamo and torture. He has consistently emphasized the U.S.
commitment to Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking, and especially to the two-state
solution... although I worry that some people in the administration are too
wedded to a West Bank first, Fatah only strategy that is very likely to fail. I
don't have a great deal of hope that there can be much progress with this
Israeli government or with the divided Palestinian leadership. But Obama has
delivered on his promise to engage directly with rivals such as Iran, Syria,
and Venezuela, putting some meat on his earlier convictions about the value of
such diplomacy.
I am less confident about the direction of his policy on two key issues: Iran
and Afghanistan. The contours of his engagement with Iran are not yet clear,
and there could be some serious negative fallout if the administration opts for
a narrow dialogue on the nuclear program on a short clock, rather than a broad
dialogue over the full set of regional issues. I worry at the number of key
positions which remain unfilled. And I don't really understand the logic of the
new "Af-Pak" strategy, or see any reason to believe that the
additional troops or the new strategy are likely to significantly change the
situation there. But overall Obama has demonstrated tremendous instincts
thus far on foreign policy, delivering just the approach he promised during the
campaign and putting a lot of potential issues into play.
Marc
Lynch, an associate professor of political science at George Washington
University, blogs at lynch.foreignpolicy.com.
Robert Kagan
Grade: A-/B+
President
Obama scores high on Afghanistan and Iraq, where he bucked his left wing, to
deepen U.S. commitment in the first and maintain it responsibly in the second.
His policy toward Iran makes sense, so long as he is ready with a serious Plan
B if the negotiating track with Tehran fails. His policies toward Russia are
sound, which include going ahead with missile defense unless and until the Iran
threat is gone, sticking up for the right of Ukraine and Georgia to choose
their own allies, and rejecting any Russian sphere of influence in the former
Soviet space. The test will come when Russia sparks another crisis with
Georgia. I would have given him a straight A- if he hadn't thrown a bouquet to
the Venezuelan dictator, which adds to an emerging pattern of indifference to
human rights and democratic aspirations from Russia to China to Iran and now to
Latin America. One hopes this strategically misguided and morally disturbing
approach fades as the need to be mindlessly "anything-but-Bush" becomes less of
a driving force in the administration's foreign policy.
Robert Kagan is
a columnist for the Washington
Post and a senior associate at the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Ivan Krastev
Grade: B+
First,
it is too early to say whether Obama's foreign policy initiatives will work.
But he has opened a huge amount of room for maneuver that the United States had
been desperately missing before.
Second,
he has achieved any presidents' dream: pursuing a realpolitik that most people outside of the United States already
view as the ideal politik. Obama has
even introduced his own brand of realism -- "inspirational realism."
In
my view, a recent joke best summarizes his achievements. In the wake of the
G-20 meeting, Obama, Sarkozy, and Putin were walking around a beautiful lake.
In the middle of the lake, there was an island. "Let's go there," Obama
suggested, and started walking on water to it. Sarkozy followed him. Medvedev
also followed, but started sinking.
"Should
we tell him where the stones are?" Sarkozy whispered to Obama.
"What
stones?" Obama replied.
But
while "inspirational realism" is probably what the United States can
deliver at the moment, the best question about Obama's policies is, will they
work? Probably the most fundamental shift in Obama's policies concern Europe.
It is not too early to say that in its relations with Russia, the United States
does not view the country as a European power anymore.