Why big weapons won't stop terror, Obama has it right on Iran, and nukes are so last century.
SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP/Getty Images
Don't throw up your arms yet: The end of nuclear weapons is possible, if distant, says Hans Blix, pictured here at Chernobyl in 2003.
Hans Blix is most famous for
his role as head U.N. weapons inspector in Iraq in 2003, when he countered the
Bush administration's claims that Saddam Hussein was stockpiling weapons of
mass destruction. Before that controversy, Blix had a long and significant
career as a Swedish diplomat and foreign minister, and from 1981 to 1997 he
served as director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In
2000, he was called out of retirement by then U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan
to head the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission. Since his
tenure as a weapons inspector, Blix has chaired the international Weapons of
Mass Destruction Commission that works to reduce the threat of biological,
chemical, and nuclear weapons.
After U.S.
President Barack Obama's April 5 speech in Prague, Czech Republic, in which he
called for a world without nuclear weapons, Foreign
Policy and Johan Bergenäs at the Monterey Institute of International
Studies sought out Blix's thoughts on the future of nuclear proliferation.
Bergenäs asked Blix about some of today's most important security issues,
including the Iranian nuclear dilemma and nuclear disarmament.
Foreign Policy: For many years, you have called for a reawakening of
the nuclear disarmament movement. Has that reawakening begun?
Hans Blix:
President Obama's speech in Prague has the potential of opening a new era in
international political and security relations. For years the world was sliding
into an ever colder peace, faith in military solutions, and arms buildups. We
may now see a development toward sanity, conciliation instead of confrontation,
and efforts to move toward a world without nuclear weapons.
Nuclear weapons are becoming
very expensive theoretical gadgets. The world does not need nuclear weapons to
fight terrorism. It is also hard to see how the world would have use [for] aircraft
carriers in order to fight terrorists; helicopters and drones may be more
useful. However, it will take time before nuclear weapons are eliminated.
Meanwhile, their existence may have some deterrent effect.
During the Cold War,
political animosity propelled arms races. Now it seems upsurges in arms
acquisitions and developments -- space war, nuclear developments -- trigger
political animosity. A decrease in weapons developments and acquisitions would
lead to a sense of greater security.
FP: Do you think that any Iranian regime will give up its enrichment
program, or must a solution to that crisis include an indigenous enrichment
program?
HB: Even
though I don't think it is conclusively shown that Iran plans to develop
nuclear weapons, there are reasons for the suspicions. The program's rationale --
which might have fluctuated -- could be weapons, but it also seems conceivable
that it could be simply to demonstrate the capability for enrichment. Even an
enrichment capability might have some deterrent effect. At the same time, such
a capability is likely to increase tensions, and therefore, it would be
desirable that it be suspended for a prolonged period of time. I doubt that
Iran would renounce enrichment for good.
In my view, the Western
approach to Iran has been marred by some unwise elements. Demanding that
enrichment must be suspended before the Western states will dignify Iran with
any talks has been humiliating and counterproductive. Preconditions might [have
been] accepted by a party that is terribly eager for direct talks. Iran was
not. Rather, it was the Western side that wanted Iran to talk. Not
surprisingly, Iran has stonewalled [them] and continued its program. Offering
Iran friendship might not be needed, but demonstrating respect might be more
conducive to agreement than showing contempt or condescension.
In the very short period that
[the Obama] administration has grappled with the Iranian issue, I think it has
moved wisely, avoiding threats and showing that it recognizes and respects the
Islamic state as the reality it is.
FP: If there were just two options, how would you weigh the choice between
an attack on Iran or a nuclear-armed Iran?
HB: The
consequences of an attack on Iran would very likely be a nuclear-armed Iran!
There would be a delay, but nuclear weapons that are hypothetical today would
be certain in a few years time. Secondly, an attack would probably have
horrible consequences on the supply of oil coming through the Persian Gulf; it
would impact the world economy.
Nuclear arms in Iran would
neutralize the threat of the Israeli nuclear weapons. I do not see that as a
disaster; these weapons should not have been developed in the first place.
FP: What role does the IAEA have to play in the Iranian nuclear issue?
HB: Demands
that Iran must accept more IAEA inspections and answer more questions to show
its peaceful intentions are made with the knowledge that neither Iran nor
anyone else can prove the negative and with the hope that something will be
found that incriminates Iran. Even if Iran were to succeed in making itself
look fairly credible, the enrichment program would be -- rightly -- said to
increase tensions, because Iran could one day change its mind about how to use
[the program].