How to give Zimbabwe
the boost it needs without propping up Mugabe.
JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images
The odd couple: Donors need help getting aid to Zimbabwe -- without Mugabe's hand in the foreign aid cookie jar.
Slowly but surely, Zimbabwe is showing signs of life. A
unity government that married the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC)
and President Robert Mugabe's ruling Zanu-PF was finally created earlier this
year. And though a bitter and crippling power struggle continues, often
publicly, there is one profound difference that gives hope: Individuals in
positions of authority are now actively trying to help the people of this
shattered country. The MDC leader-turned-prime minister, Morgan Tsvangirai,
seems keenly aware that he is in a race against time. But as he put it during
May Day rallies, "This government is broke," and it's increasingly
clear that without serious reform, help may not be on the way.
This is bad news for everyone, particularly Tsvangirai and
his MDC. If these newcomers do not improve matters relatively quickly, they
risk being seen as parties to Mugabe's misrule. Frantic to find funds,
Tsvangirai and other MDC ministers have begun a world donor tour asking for
help. Zimbabwe's finance minister, Tendai Biti, says the country will need $45
billion over the next five years to bring down hyperinflation, keep up emergency
food assistance, reopen schools and hospitals, pay civil servants, and rebuild
a tattered infrastructure.
There's just one problem: After years of despotic rule and
thuggery, no one wants Mugabe to get his hands on the handouts. Western donors
do not trust Mugabe or his cronies in Zanu-PF, and they are not yet convinced
by the power-sharing agreement. Sending aid through nongovernmental
organizations (thereby bypassing the government entirely) is only a band-aid
solution. And though South Africa and Botswana, and a few other African
states, have announced credit lines of $400 million, these lifelines are a far
cry from the $5 billion pledged. Worse, the region's promised aid seems to rely
almost entirely upon Western donors' willingness to foot the bill. The European
Union and the United States have stated clearly that they will not step forward
until there are irreversible signs of democratic and economic reform. In fact,
neither will lift the targeted economic and travel sanctions imposed against
Mugabe and his cronies. Multilateral donors such as the World Bank are sticking
close to the same script, as its president, Robert Zoellick, made clear in
March in the run-up to the bank's spring meetings.
Still, some 2,800 miles northwest, one African country
could offer some hope and, more importantly, advice. In 2005, Liberia was a devastated country
emerging from a brutal civil conflict. International donors were eager to help,
but were fearful that the transitional government would misuse -- or even pocket -- aid money. (Such
fears were not poorly founded: Then president Gyude Bryant was later accused of
stealing $1.3 million from the state.) In response, officials within the
U.S. State Department -- including the lead author of this article -- worked with the
country to create the Liberian Governance and Economic Management Assistance
Program (GEMAP).
Under GEMAP, revenue from Liberia's abundant diamonds and
timber resources, as well as from taxes from ship registries, were collected at
the Central Bank of Liberia, where they were overseen by a new chief
administrator, an international expert recommended by the International Monetary Fund. Previously,
these revenues had been collected in multiple banks both within and outside Liberia and had long been plagued by private- and public-sector "leakages" in
which government officials and industry magnates kept many of the revenues for
themselves.
GEMAP also launched reforms of Liberia's budget and
expenditure reporting, designed to make more information on government
contracts and tenders public. Internationally recruited accounting advisors
from reputable firms were placed in key ministries and were required to cosign
with Liberian officials on major transactions. Privately funded "fellows" were
recruited to advise cabinet officials.
Encouraged by these new accountability mechanisms, the U.S.
government loosened its aid spigot, pouring more than $750 million into the
country, with all major socioeconomic indicators, notably health, improving
steadily ever since.
A Zimbabwean version of GEMAP would not only demonstrate a
commitment to break from the corruption and cronyism of the past -- it would
provide the technical expertise and outside accountability to do so. Under
"ZEMAP," such abuses as Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono's "borrowing" of $1
billion from private bank deposits would not be possible; Zimbabwe's 71
ministers and deputy ministers would be less able to leverage their new roles
for personal gain.
ZEMAP could begin by working only in MDC-run ministries:
Finance, Economic Planning, Education, and Labor. Targeted donor assistance in
these places could go a long way in helping Zimbabwe's poor and struggling
population -- all without the perils of working through Mugabe. Given the
program's potential impact, finding political will also seems possible. The
World Bank was instrumental in developing Liberia's GEMAP, and it is likely to
support a similar approach for Zimbabwe.
That is not to say that a program of checks and balances on
revenue streams and government expenditures would be a quick fix. Popular
opinion might be one of the first obstacles. In Liberia, critics of GEMAP
argued that the program usurped the country's sovereignty. Mugabe's government
has long justified its existence through anti-Western rhetoric, and making the
MDC dependent on Western donors could allow Zanu-PF to smear it as a puppet of
the West (as it has already begun to do).
Nevertheless, an international framework such as ZEMAP could provide donors an
avenue for reengagement with Zimbabwe and help make the country less dependent
upon Mugabe-era concessions to the likes of Russia and China.
Ideally,
Zimbabwe's imperfect power-sharing arrangement will be a temporary solution to
a profoundly unstable political and humanitarian situation. While that
situation is being resolved, however, ZEMAP can help the unity government --
and everyday Zimbabweans -- get back on their feet. And most importantly, it
can ensure that things don't get worse for a state now on the brink of
collapse.
Tom Woods is senior associate fellow in African affairs
at the Heritage Foundation. He helped create Liberia's GEMAP while deputy
assistant secretary of state for African affairs.
Roger Bate is Legatum fellow
in global prosperity at the American Enterprise Institute.
FOREIGN POLICY welcomes letters to the editor. Readers should address their comments to Letters@ForeignPolicy.com.