When will Pakistan's leaders wake up and do what's needed to save their country from ruin?
YOSHIKAZU TSUNO/AFP/Getty Images
As always, ineffective: President Asif Ali Zardari must reclaim his office's ability to govern.
Pakistani
President Asif Ali Zardari arrives in Washington this week at a tough time for his
country. Gen. David Petraeus has stated that the next two weeks are crucial to
Pakistan's survival, while counterinsurgency expert David Kilcullen has claimed
that the country could collapse within six months. Indeed, Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani,
Pakistan's Army chief of staff, could declare martial law imminently if his
military's counteroffensives in the Swat region prove ineffective against the
Taliban. But irrespective of whether the Army takes over yet again from
civilian authority, Pakistan has been
a failure for over a decade, and the essential prescriptions to restore the state
apply to both the elected government and the military -- and preferably a coordinated effort
between the two.
Pakistan's
hubristic and shortsighted leadership has been caught off guard by both the
strength of the Taliban and virulent autonomy of militant groups such as
Lashkar-e-Taiba. The current "wake-up" operations to retake Swat and Buner are
crucial, but not decisive. Halting Predator drone strikes against senior al Qaeda
and Taliban commanders would be no panacea either because American popularity
and public acceptance of the Pakistani Army are already near zero in the tribal
areas. Resentments will outlast such tactical switches. A much deeper strategy
is needed that simultaneously tackles the political, military, economic, and
social dimensions of Pakistan's failure.
It
is now the Pakistani government that must actively, but constructively, agitate
in restive provinces to regain the upper hand -- or risk losing even its
nominal sovereignty over Pashtun-dominated areas forever. On the political
level, the National Assembly must pass a constitutional amendment to integrate
the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) into the North-West Frontier
Province (NWFP) and mandate a fresh round of provincial elections. Only in this
way can the government offer an alternative to the hands-off Frontier Crimes
Regulation that has abetted the Taliban's rise in authority in the tribal
regions. Zardari must also finally sign the Political Parties Act to
enable the formation and campaigning of political groups. Together, these steps
would constitute an assertion rather than a surrender of sovereignty -- and
they would justify a strengthened presence of the Frontier Corps and police to
monitor elections in the FATA while forcing the Taliban to consider secular
options.
A
smarter balance between military and police efforts is also needed. Pakistan should
launch its own, indigenous version of the NATO-led provincial reconstruction teams (PRTs) that have had some success in maintaining local order, building relationships
with district-level authorities, and stimulating small-scale economic activity in Afghanistan and Iraq.
The Pakistani government's focus to date has been almost exclusively on
military-driven counterinsurgency, but real success requires boosting police
recruitment and training while deploying civilian forces to oversee the
construction of roads, schools, hospitals, and government offices. For its
part, the military must now focus on internal defense, disrupting militant
networks that have gained strength even in the Punjabi heartland.
Under
the forced apathy of ineffective governance, Pakistan's disaffected masses have
developed greater tolerance for antigovernment forces such as the Taliban, no
matter how intolerant they are. The silent majority is increasingly becoming
acquiescent, allowing radicals to find safe haven among them rather than
repelling this insidious threat. While wealthy Pashtuns flee Taliban
intimidation in Peshawar and some of the elites of Islamabad and Lahore
gloomily consider abandoning Pakistan altogether, what remains of the country's
educational system and economic resources must be directed toward national
stabilization.
Giving
millions of mainstream Pakistanis a stake in the economy is the only way for
the country to avert a deeper failure. A country in existential crisis does not
have the luxury of separate education and labor policies. Twenty million
children ages 10 to 17 are not in school, and of the almost 25 million Pakistanis
ages 18 to 24, more than half have either not completed school or graduated but
remain underemployed. Many in these poor and disenfranchised classes are
listless young men; most suicide bombers are the 18- or 19-year-olds who come from
their ranks.
The
textbook approaches to supporting secondary education don't make sense unless
the economy is geared toward employing the educated. So
much international research and commentary on Pakistani education has focused
on madrasa reform, ignoring the
older portion of the population that most needs to be engaged. Vocational
schools must get immediate funding to recruit and train able-bodied youth in
basic engineering and construction work, and university students should be
dispatched to participate in PRTs as well as "Teach for Pakistan" programs. There are
many shura councils in the FATA, including even in North Waziristan, that have
expressed a desire to receive outside assistance provided it works with them
rather than around them.
International
assistance must support each of the aforementioned strategies seamlessly, but to
date this has not happened. In both Pakistan
and Afghanistan, recent years have seen a USAID gravy train of contracts
for U.S. and European companies and NGOs with little accountability or
effectiveness. Not surprisingly, they have been outspent, at least in terms of
effectiveness, by even the 100 rupees per day the Taliban will pay the families
of boys from NWFP to join its campaign. The State Department, White House,
Congress, and Pentagon are presently at odds over how to certify or
validate that Pakistan is spending U.S. assistance on the right purposes -- to say
nothing of the $5.3 billion in aid pledges that Pakistan received at the recent
donors conference in Tokyo. President Zardari has to use his Washington
meetings this week to make progress on spending this money right.
If the protests against the Taliban that have
recently rippled across Pakistan are any indication, the elite are becoming
quite vocal. Now this sliver of Pakistan's population must mobilize with the
help of its government, the international community, the rest of the country, and Pakistan's extensive diaspora. Pakistan has been unhelpfully called the
"most dangerous country in the world." Its citizens must now decide if that is
the case.
Ayesha Khanna is a partner at Fitzgerald Analytics, a
strategic management consulting firm.