Clenched Fists

By Lydia Khalil

Barack Obama is clearly engaged in the Middle East. Unlike other U.S. presidents, he has not waited until the tail end of his presidency to hazard the tar pit of the Arab-Israeli peace process, and has made breaching the rift between the United States and the Muslim world a cornerstone of his foreign-policy agenda. Only six months into his term, Obama's outreach efforts are being credited for the success of the March 14 coalition's victory in Lebanon and the softening of anti-American attitudes throughout the region.

But is all this really the result of an "Obama effect"? Not yet. Domestic political dynamics are the likely explanation for March 14's triumph over Iranian-backed Hezbollah and its allies. And though Middle Easterners are intrigued by the new American president and appreciate his approach, they are also jaded by decades of U.S. policy and are not yet ready to "unclench their fists" to grasp his "open hand."

It is too soon to tell what the ultimate Obama effect will be. On thing is clear, however: Obama cannot truly influence politics in the region if most Middle Eastern citizens have no meaningful way to participate in their governments.

Steering clear of the Bush administration's earnest, but misguided, democratization policies, the Obama administration has opted to speak directly to the peoples of the Middle East instead of pressuring the regimes to be more democratic. 

In countries like Lebanon, where citizens can participate in open elections, Obama's message directly to the people can, and likely does, resonate. But it is important to remember that the vast majority of countries in the Middle East are not democracies -- they are barely participatory. In such cases, it doesn't much matter if Obama has a positive message for the man on the street. If the average Ahmed has little to no say in how his country is governed, Obama's words cannot truly carry their full effect.

Take the site of the president's much-praised address to Muslims: Egypt. Once called "the mother of the world," the country is governed by an ossified, out-of-touch regime that is hemorrhaging political, economic, and cultural relevance. Most Egyptians are far removed from their government. So long as this remains the case, Obama's outreach efforts will not even be able to change the politics of the country where he gave his landmark speech, let alone the wider region.

Obama delivered only a veiled warning to Middle Eastern autocrats to reform -- and he did not go far enough. For true citizen participation and political change are the only ways this most volatile of regions can truly find stability we can believe in.

Lydia Khalil is an international affairs fellow in residence at the Council on Foreign Relations and an associate at the Project on Middle East Democracy.