On the U.S. bottoming out: It does appear that the U.S. economy as a whole is bottoming out, in the sense that six or eight months from now, sometime in the second quarter, economists will say -- that was the bottom of the recession, the trough. But, it's not the same thing as saying that we're going to have a rapid recovery and many sectors of the economy will pick up.

On the shape of the recession: Well, there's going to be some dimension of V here. Because a major feature of the recession has been a big inventory drawdown and that inventory drawdown comes to an end and that's automatically a big plus, in terms of arithmetic. So you may well get some bounce. I think the real issue is not so much what happens over the next quarter, but the next six quarters look like. The conventional view that the next six quarters will be weaker than average is sensible, because of the continuing problems with the financial system as well as the fact that we're involved in a global downturn.

It's likely, for example, that in contrast to the last recession there will be no rapid rebound in housing construction. The fact that you have generated a deep downturn means investment will bounce back less quickly. Put all those things together, it's a good case for a slower than average recovery and subsequent expansion.

On bad factors vs. ones that could reverse expansion: I was concerned a year ago that regulatory actions would impede -- would be a factor in exacerbating the downturn, in that sense pro-cyclical. I think we're now at the point, nine or twelve months later, that enough of this stuff is inevitable or obvious and financial institutions are already adjusting to a new regulatory environment. It's more of a debater's point, now.

I think at this point, in some sense, the weak financial system may be one factor making the expansion slower than usual. But it's no longer going to throw the economy into reverse. That's quite different than when it was going down.

I think the notion that you're going to have an oil spike, or that the rise in long term interest rates is going to choke off recovery -- there's no recovery that's been stopped by a hike in long-term interests rates. Oil is associated with recession, but that's not quite the same thing as saying that rising commodity prices -- a demand phenomenon -- will stop the recovery.

Once things get going there will be continued expansion. The question is, how much that expansion will be depressed.

On Western European stimulus: We're past the point of criticizing countries for not doing enough stimulus -- they don't need more stimulus at this point. Everything's pointing in the right direction. Assuming no further catastrophes, I think the question of stimulus is in the past now. One can have disagreements about how much more stimulus there should have been or how fast it should be removed. But we're on a second order of questions now.

But, I think you can be critical, even if it's second- or third-order at this point. I think [Germany] should have done quite a bit more, and not been so stingy and free-riding on the rest of the world. But that's bygones. The recession will end and the economy will recover. The worst is largely behind us.

On the IMF: There will be problems down the road. I suspect that the IMF has not reached its peak in terms of lending and new programs, because of their role and the nature of the crisis. There will be countries that are affected by a lag in the recession in many parts of the world, and in Eastern Europe. Even today, you saw an opposition candidate in Bulgaria saying that they maybe Bulgaria needs to seek IMF stimulus.

On worrying: I'm a former central banker. Everything keeps me up at night. But no specific, single worry.

Edwin Truman is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.