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Robert Mugabe

Country: Zimbabwe

In power since: April 18, 1980

Election in question: March 29, 2008

Why he’ll go: Zimbabwe’s electoral commission hasn’t yet released the results of the presidential election, but it is widely thought that opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) received more votes than Mugabe. Tsvangirai insists he is the outright winner and a second-round runoff vote is not needed.

Why he won’t: Mugabe is thought to be preparing a campaign of violence in an effort to stay in power. The government has already raided the main opposition party, detained foreign journalists, and evicted more than 60 commercial farmers from their land. Tsvangirai claims it’s a “de facto military coup,” with Mugabe rolling out troops across the country to intimidate people ahead of a possible runoff election. Analysts think Mugabe is trying to postpone a second round so that he will have time to regroup and concoct a violent response. For as even one of Mugabe’s fellow Zanu-PF party members recognized, a runoff vote would be a “suicide mission.”

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Pervez Musharraf

Country: Pakistan

In power since: October 12, 1999

Election in question: October 2007

Why he’ll go: In February’s parliamentary elections, Musharraf’s party was dealt a crushing defeat by the parties of former prime ministers Nawaz Sharif and the late Benazir Bhutto. The new Parliament could reinstate the Supreme Court judges that Musharraf dismissed last November, at a time when the court was debating the constitutionality of Musharraf’s controversial October 2007 reelection. A reinstated Supreme Court might declare Musharraf’s presidency invalid. Additionally, some analysts and members of the new ruling coalition say Parliament could likely muster the two-thirds majority needed to impeach Musharraf, or at least strip him of key powers.

Why he won’t: The parties of the ruling coalition have a history of feuding, so they could fail to come together to impeach Musharraf. Further, the United States, which sees Musharraf as a key ally in its “War on Terror,” has reportedly been doing all it can to keep Musharraf as president. A senior Pakistani official told Pakistani newspaper The Nation that the United States has been having secret talks with major ruling politicians about keeping Musharraf in the presidency, saying that he is willing to accept a reduced role in day-to-day government matters, but still have a lead role in combating terrorism. Another official told The Nation, “Had the Bush administration withdrawn its support, the President would have called it a day much earlier, most probably after [February’s elections].”

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Hugo Chávez

Country: Venezuela

In power since: Feb. 2, 1999

Election in question: 2012

Why he’ll go: Strictly speaking, Chávez is more like a dictator wannabe. Last December, after narrowly losing a referendum that would have allowed him to run for reelection indefinitely and given him new powers, Chávez said he would step down in 2013 when his current term expires. The defeat of the referendum has been regarded as a sign that Venezuelans’ reject his plans for “21st-century socialism.” Venezuelans’ support for him appears amid worsening food shortages and violent crime. In January, graffiti began appearing in the capital that said “Diosdado Presidente,” indicating support for Diosdado Cabello, governor of Miranda state, as a new president.

Why he won’t: A month after losing the referendum, Chávez told the country’s National Assembly that he was planning a new referendum for 2010 in which Venezuelans’ would vote on letting him run for reelection indefinitely. The Venezuelan newspaper El Universal reported him as saying “I am not indispensable. But, God willing, and if I have life and health, I hope to be several years more at the revolution helm. I consider it necessary despite all the flaws we can have.”

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Omar Hassan al-Bashir

Country: Sudan

In power since: June 30, 1989

Election in question: 2009

Why he’ll go: Under the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, national elections are to take place no later than July 2009. The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), the former rebel group that’s now the main political party in South Sudan, could defeat Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP) in a popular vote, Sudan expert Alex de Waal told the BBC last year. “The NCP is deeply unpopular,” he said, noting that the SPLM could receive a reasonable number of votes in the North to add to its southern votes to win a majority.

Why he won’t: The 2009 election may not even happen, and even if it does, it is unlikely to be free and fair. The census required for it to take place has already been postponed three times. Additional factors make elections in Sudan especially complex: ensuring proper laws are in place regarding political parties and election procedures, voter registration, civic education, and training of election monitors, to mention a few. Then there’s the whole question of Darfur. The area has been wracked by violence, and large fractions of its population have been displaced into refugee camps.

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Aleksandr Lukashenko

Country: Belarus

In power since: July 20, 1994

Election in question: 2011

Why he’ll go: Lukashenko, widely labeled as “Europe’s last dictator,” has domestic opponents, and he has received condemnation from many countries around the world. The United States enacted the Belarus Democracy Act in 2004, and its measures include support for Belorussian political parties, nongovernmental organizations, and independent media.

Why he won’t: Lukashenko says he wants to stay in the game. When asked last year whether he wants to run in the next election, planned for 2011, he responded, “May God help me to fulfill everything I promised the people. If I do that and if I remain the same active, healthy man, I will have no intention of abandoning political activity.” Plus, during his years in power, he has honed his ability to mastermind fraudulent elections and stifle any opposition, warning people who join opposition protests that, “We will wring their necks, as one might a duck.” In 2006’s presidential election, his main opponent, Aleksandr Milinkevich, was limited to distributing fliers that provided a phone number where he would be available for an hour.

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