After years of contentious debate, President Clinton is close to deciding whether to proceed with the deployment of a national missile defense (NMD) system. The proposed system—designed to defend the United States against limited intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) attacks—would consist of 100 interceptor missiles based in Alaska, supported by one acquisition radar and five early-warning radars. A possible second phase of the system would add 100 interceptors and a second acquisition radar (probably in Grand Forks, North Dakota), and would eventually network the radars with space-based infrared sensors. This system would be initially operational in 2005 and would reach full operational capability in 2008. Its deployment would either violate or require major changes to the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty between the United States and Russia.

The president has indicated that he will base his decision on four factors: the nature and projected timing of the threat (based in part on a new National Intelligence Estimate); the technical readiness of the system for deployment (determined in part by a test scheduled for June 26); the affordability of the system; and the impact of deployment on arms control treaties and relations with Russia, China, and U.S. allies.

We believe that an NMD system is critical to the United States' future homeland defense. However, the system under consideration is not the best approach for initial deployment and fails to address several threats that the United States now faces. We propose an alternative approach...

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