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The Next Economy
By Craig Barrett
September/October 2004
Over the last 15 years, about 3 billion people, or half the world’s population, joined the global marketplace, from China and India to Russia and Eastern Europe. These consumers are ready, willing, and increasingly able to purchase high-tech products “made in the U.S.A.” More than 70 percent of U.S. semiconductor sales come from outside the United States. The Asia-Pacific region alone accounted for 40 percent of Intel’s revenue in 2003. These new players in the global marketplace may represent growth opportunities for U.S. companies, but they are also would-be entrepreneurs who pose a threat to the United States’ economic and technological leadership. In addition, U.S. corporations must compete against overseas governments determined to make their countries the best place to do business. The economies of foreign competitors are growing fast. India’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expanding at an annual rate of 8.1 percent, China’s at 9.1 percent. These governments are developing infrastructures, offering tax and development incentives to attract investment, and, in many cases, deploying a more educated and motivated workforce than that of the United States. Just 1.6 percent of 24-year-olds in the United States have a bachelor’s degree in engineering, compared to figures roughly two times higher in Russia and four times higher in South Korea and Japan. Chinese universities confer more than three times as many engineering degrees as U.S. universities. The bottom line is that the United States no longer has a lock on the ideas and innovations of the future or the white-collar jobs that flow from them. Knee-jerk protectionism will not reverse this trend or keep jobs at home. Instead, the United States must rethink the government’s role in research and development (R&D), establish a 21st-century communications infrastructure, and, last, pledge to “do no harm.” To make U.S....


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