Few causes merit greater celebration than the end of a disease. But despite
the dedicated efforts of the last century, the world has only held such a celebration
once—when smallpox was eradicated in 1977. Current generations who know
smallpox only as a fading scar on the upper arm forget the impact that this
global killer had over centuries. Its eradication in the United States alone
has saved countless lives and at least $17 billion.
Today, the world is poised to add another disease to the list of those that
will no longer threaten humans: polio. As difficult as smallpox eradication
was, polio has presented an even tougher challenge. Some polio infections alert
doctors with tell-tale paralysis, but for each of these cases, about 200 people
may have only minor flu-like symptoms and can silently transmit the disease
for weeks. As a logistical challenge, one observer has written, the difference
between smallpox and polio eradication is “the difference between extinguishing
a candle flame and putting out a forest fire.”
Yet we have never been closer to ending the disease. In 1988, there were an
estimated 350,000 cases of polio worldwide. In 2005, the confirmed caseload
has been slashed to just 760 people in 13 countries. Through national and international
leadership, local heroism, and economic investments, immunization rates are
climbing in most countries. In 2003, 415 million children in 55 countries were
immunized during National Immunization Days, using more than 2.2 billion doses
of oral polio vaccine. Most national health services have responded quickly
to outbreaks. China, for example, stamped out a potential flare-up last year.
The World Health Organization launched a massive preemptive vaccination campaign
in Somalia to prevent an outbreak from spreading into the...