“The West Can Stop Relying on Imported Oil”

Not in this lifetime. When people call for energy independence, they usually mean ending reliance on imported oil. Energy independence, we are told, would avoid dangerous disruptions in supply, ease entanglements in the Middle East, force corrupt petrostates to reform, and dry up terrorist funds. It may be a noble statement of ultimate intentions, but as a practical matter, energy independence is absurd. The amount of petroleum imported by the United States and other countries is so enormous that operating without it over the next several decades will be impossible for any advanced industrialized economy.

The trend lines clearly indicate that Americans are becoming more energy dependent, not less so. In 1973, the United States imported 35 percent of its oil; by 2003, that proportion had jumped to 55 percent. In 2004, the United States consumed an average of 20.4 million barrels of oil per day, more than half of which was imported. Ending dependence on imported oil would mean replacing about 4 billion barrels of oil every year. To put that number in perspective, assuming no major new discovery of oil deposits, the United States would burn through its oil reserves in four to five years without imports. Worse, U.S. demand is projected to grow 37 percent in the next 20 years. At that point, oil imports will likely account for 68 percent of petroleum supply.

The picture is no different if you consider other major industrialized countries. In 2004, Japan consumed an average of 5.4 million barrels a day—almost all of which was imported. Ninety-three percent of Germany’s daily oil demand of 2.6 million barrels is imported. And France already imports nearly all of its oil. Energy independence is a distant dream for all of these...