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How to Catch Osama
September/October 2008
Photoillustration by Travis Daub for FP
The Terrorism Index 2008
Signs of progress in Iraq have left America’s top foreign-policy experts experiencing a rare sensation: optimism. But, according to the fourth Terrorism Index, the U.S. national security establishment is in sharp disagreement with the presidential candidates—and alarmed that its so-called allies may soon harbor its worst enemies.

Get Some Intelligence
By Shuja Nawaz

Osama bin Laden needs an extensive logistics network to stay active and in touch with his followers, and that presents an opportunity. Here’s how I’d catch him.

Penetrate his network through double agents—locals and Arabs who could slowly work their way into al Qaeda’s logistics chain. Over time, they could help map his activities and likely movements. Bin Laden cannot move easily without a sizable group of followers, so watch for the double-cab pickups that traverse the mountainous, wooded terrain of the northern Hindu Kush, his most likely hide-out. Look in Dir and Chitral districts, plus the contiguous Afghan provinces across the border. Bin Laden is not likely to settle in the more open, vegetation-free zone further south. Inventory the hujras or meeting houses that have been hired by foreigners through local Taliban and other sympathizers (bribes will get you everywhere in the tribal areas, so use cash to find out what you need...



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