A specter haunts Cuba. It is the specter of the nation’s past. The politics of violence and revenge marked Cuba’s two dictatorship-ending transitions in the past century. Violence reigned in 1933 following dictator Gerardo Machado’s fall. And after Fulgencio Batista’s overthrow in 1959, mob rule gave way to trials without due process, leading to gross human rights abuses.

Such violence feeds off the hyperbole prevalent in Cuban politics. This style is as evident of many top officials in Havana as among some elected and self-appointed Cuban-American leaders in Miami. In the histrionics of Cuban politics, there are not just adversaries�there are traitors. This mindset connects politics with the vengeance, retribution, and restitution that many opposing Fidel Castro’s government expect. It also explains why Cuba’s incumbents rely on ruthless repression to prevent such outcomes. Intransigence, fear, and stalemate flow from the expectation that Cuba’s future could mirror its past.

Is there a “morning-after pill” for Cuba’s Day After Fidel? For Cuban officials, the answer is yes. Gen. Raúl Castro will abort such a cataclysm. Raúl Castro, Fidel’s younger brother, is the government’s First Vice President, the Communist Party’s Second Secretary, and the Armed Forces Minister. He was the master organizer behind Cuba’s victories in three wars fought in the 1970s and 1980s in Angola and the Horn of Africa. Cuba’s leading military officers credit Fidel, of course, but also Raúl for helping them accomplish what the United States could not do in Vietnam and the Soviet Union could not do in Afghanistan: Cuban soldiers won the wars they fought. Raúl Castro is also respected within the Communist Party leadership...